Multi-factor impact analysis of agricultural production in Bangladesh with climate change   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Alex C. Ruane  David C. Major  Winston H. Yu  Mozaharul Alam  Sk. Ghulam Hussain  Abu Saleh Khan  Ahmadul Hassan  Bhuiya Md. Tamim Al Hossain  Richard Goldberg  Radley M. Horton  Cynthia Rosenzweig 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(1):338-350

Diverse vulnerabilities of Bangladesh's agricultural sector in 16 sub-regions are assessed using experiments designed to investigate climate impact factors in isolation and in combination. Climate information from a suite of global climate models (GCMs) is used to drive models assessing the agricultural impact of changes in temperature, precipitation, carbon dioxide concentrations, river floods, and sea level rise for the 2040–2069 period in comparison to a historical baseline. Using the multi-factor impacts analysis framework developed in Yu et al. (2010), this study provides new sub-regional vulnerability analyses and quantifies key uncertainties in climate and production. Rice (aman, boro, and aus seasons) and wheat production are simulated in each sub-region using the biophysical Crop Environment REsource Synthesis (CERES) models. These simulations are then combined with the MIKE BASIN hydrologic model for river floods in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) Basins, and the MIKE21 Two-Dimensional Estuary Model to determine coastal inundation under conditions of higher mean sea level. The impacts of each factor depend on GCM configurations, emissions pathways, sub-regions, and particular seasons and crops. Temperature increases generally reduce production across all scenarios. Precipitation changes can have either a positive or a negative impact, with a high degree of uncertainty across GCMs. Carbon dioxide impacts on crop production are positive and depend on the emissions pathway. Increasing river flood areas reduce production in affected sub-regions. Precipitation uncertainties from different GCMs and emissions scenarios are reduced when integrated across the large GBM Basins’ hydrology. Agriculture in Southern Bangladesh is severely affected by sea level rise even when cyclonic surges are not fully considered, with impacts increasing under the higher emissions scenario.  相似文献   

Shock waves in a dusty plasma with dust of opposite polarities     

Armina Rahman  A. A. Mamun  S. M. Khurshed Alam 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2008,315(1-4):243-247

A four-component dusty plasma consisting of electrons, ions, and negative as well as positive dust particles has been considered. The basic features of shock waves that may exist in such a four-component dusty plasma have been theoretically investigated by the reductive perturbation method. The implications of our results in different regions of space (viz. cometary tails, mesosphere, Jupiter’s magnetosphere, etc.) are briefly discussed.  相似文献   

Optimization of dissolved urea measurements in coastal waters with the combination of a single reagent and high temperature     

Md. Shafiul Alam  Beatriz E. Casareto  Yoshimi Suzuki  Rumana Sultana  Toshiyuki Suzuki 《Journal of Oceanography》2017,73(2):249-258

Urea is an unstable and intermediate organic nitrogenous compound present in coastal environments and is derived from the excretion of some aquatic organisms and wastewater discharges. Urea plays an important role in the nitrogen cycle, where it is utilized by algae, including diatoms. However, there are very limited relevant data on the production, consumption, and degradation of urea because of the lack of appropriate measurement techniques. The conventional method is based on the formation of a colored product when urea reacts with diacetyl monoxime in a sulfuric acid solution. We examined the optimal conditions for the formation of the colored product; specifically, we evaluated different temperatures (22–80 °C), reaction times, mixing ratios of color reagents, and sample storage times. Application of the single mixed color-developing reagent (COLDER) at 70 °C resulted in the optimal formation of the colored product within a short reaction time of 60 min. This method was then used to measure dissolved urea in different coastal environments. The concentrations detected were as follows: 0.65–0.72, 0.49–0.58, and 1.09–2.28 µM urea-N at coral reef, seagrass, and mangrove sites, respectively. Our results showed high precision (SD = 0.02, CV = 1.2%), a low detection limit (0.03 µM urea-N), and a high recovery rate (94–99%). In summary, this high-temperature procedure for urea measurements should be valuable for obtaining high-precision data that can further the understanding of urea dynamics and its role in coastal ecosystems.  相似文献   

Investigating the impact of the properties of pilot points on calibration of groundwater models: case study of a karst catchment in Rote Island,Indonesia     

Dua K. S. Y. Klaas  Monzur Alam Imteaz 《Hydrogeology Journal》2017,25(6):1703-1719

A robust configuration of pilot points in the parameterisation step of a model is crucial to accurately obtain a satisfactory model performance. However, the recommendations provided by the majority of recent researchers on pilot-point use are considered somewhat impractical. In this study, a practical approach is proposed for using pilot-point properties (i.e. number, distance and distribution method) in the calibration step of a groundwater model. For the first time, the relative distance–area ratio (d/A) and head-zonation-based (HZB) method are introduced, to assign pilot points into the model domain by incorporating a user-friendly zone ratio. This study provides some insights into the trade-off between maximising and restricting the number of pilot points, and offers a relative basis for selecting the pilot-point properties and distribution method in the development of a physically based groundwater model. The grid-based (GB) method is found to perform comparably better than the HZB method in terms of model performance and computational time. When using the GB method, this study recommends a distance–area ratio of 0.05, a distance–x-grid length ratio (d/X _grid) of 0.10, and a distance–y-grid length ratio (d/Y _grid) of 0.20.  相似文献   

Fractured Rock Permeability as a Function of Temperature and Confining Pressure     

A. K. M. Badrul Alam  Yoshiaki Fujii  Daisuke Fukuda  Jun-ichi Kodama  Katsuhiko Kaneko 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2015,172(10):2871-2889

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Sea Level Variations and Geomorphological Changes in the Coastal Belt of Pakistan     

Tariq Masood Ali Khan  D. A. Razzaq  Qamar-Uz-Zaman Chaudhry  Dewan Abdul Quadir  Anwarul Kabir  Majajul Alam Sarker 《Marine Geodesy》2013,36(1-2):159-174

The UNEP in its regional seas program in 1989 has included Pakistan in a group of countries which are vulnerable to the impact of rising sea level. If the present trend of sea level rise (SLR) at Karachi continues, in the next 50 years the sea level rise along the Pakistan Coast will be 50 mm (5 cm). Since the rising rates of sea level at Karachi are within the global range of 1-2 mm/year, the trends may be treated as eustatic SLR. Historical air temperature and sea surface temperature (SST) data of Karachi also show an increasing pattern and an increasing trend of about 0.67°C has been registered in the air temperature over the last 35 years, whereas the mean SST in the coastal waters of Karachi has also registered an increasing trend of about 0.3°C in a decade. Sindh coastal zone is more vulnerable to sea level rise than Baluchistan coast, as uplifting of the coast by about 1-2 mm/year due to subduction of Indian Ocean plate is a characteristic of Baluchistan coast. Within the Indus deltaic creek system, the area nearby Karachi is more vulnerable to coastal erosion and accretion than the other deltaic region, mainly due to human activities together with natural phenomena such as wave action, strong tidal currents, and rise in sea level. Therefore, The present article deals mainly with the study of dynamical processes such as erosion and accretion associated with sea level variations along the Karachi coast and surrounding Indus deltaic coastline. The probable beach erosion in a decade along the sandy beaches of Karachi has been estimated. The estimates show that 1.1 mm/year rise in sea level causes a horizontal beach loss of 110 mm per year. Therefore, coast eroded with rise in sea level at Karachi and surrounding sandy beaches would be 1.1 m during a period of next 10 years. The northwestern part of Indus delta, especially the Gizri and Phitti creeks and surrounding islands, are most unstable. Historical satellite images are used to analyze the complex pattern of sediment movements, the change in shape of coastline, and associated erosion and accretion patterns in Bundal and Buddo Islands. The significant changes in land erosion and accretion areas at Bundal and Buddo Islands are evident and appear prominently in the images. A very high rate of accretion of sediments in the northwestern part of Buddo Island has been noticed. In the southwest monsoon season the wave breaking direction in both these islands is such that the movement of littoral drift is towards west. Erosion is also taking place in the northeastern and southern part of Bundal Island. The erosion in the south is probably due to strong wave activities and in the northeast is due to strong tidal currents and seawater intrusion. Accretion takes place at the northwest and western parts of Bundal Island. By using the slope of Indus delta, sea encroachment and the land area inundation with rising sea level of 1 m and 2 m have also been estimated.  相似文献   

巴基斯坦达尔巴丁(Dalbandin）地震前观测到的电离层foF2异常变化     

穆罕默德?伊尔凡  阿夫塔?阿拉姆  默罕默德?朱奈德  默罕默德?埃亚茨?阿明  达拉?伊克巴尔  黄辅琼 《中国地震研究》2015,29(4):567-575

电离层foF2变化对地震反应非常敏感,与地震有关的电离层扰动变化结果似乎非常有望用于地震短期预测。格林威治时间2011年1月18日20:23分,一次7.2级的大地震发生在巴基斯坦的达尔巴丁(28.73oＮ, 63.92oＥ）。本文研究中,我们必须利用架设在巴基斯坦的伊斯兰堡（33.78oN, 73.06oE）、玛尔坦（32.26oN,71.51oE）和卡拉奇（24.89oN,67.02oE）三个垂直探测台站获得的白天（08:00 a.m. - 05:00 p.m.）小时值数据找出地震前的foF2异常变化特征。结果显示,在达尔巴丁地震前几天,foF2出现了显著变化;并且距离震中最近的台站观测到的频率与幅度异常变化大于较远的位于孕震区边缘的台站。尽管地震异常特征显著,但增加其它电离层参数可以提高foF2异常的高置信度水平。  相似文献   

Statistical landslide susceptibility assessment of the Mansehra and Torghar districts,Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province,Pakistan     

Jewgenij Torizin  Michael Fuchs  Adnan Alam Awan  Ijaz Ahmad  Sardar Saeed Akhtar  Simon Sadiq  Asif Razzak  Daniel Weggenmann  Faseeh Fawad  Nimra Khalid  Faisan Sabir  Ahsan Jamal Khan 《Natural Hazards》2017,87(2):757-771

This paper presents laboratory experiments and numerical simulations of effects of submerged obstacles on tsunami-like solitary wave and its run-up. This study was carried out for the breaking and non-breaking solitary waves on 1:19.85 uniform slope which contains a submerged obstacle. New laboratory experiments are performed to describe the mitigation of tsunami amplitude and run-up under the effect of submerged obstacles. We are based on experimental results obtained to validate the numerical model. The numerical modeling using COULWAVE aims essentially to show the effect of the obstacle on the shape of solitary wave and the limit of this effect. Using a multiple nonlinear regression, we have determined a model to estimate height of run-up according to the amplitude of the wave and the obstacle peak depth.  相似文献   

Sustainability Through an Alternative Property‐Rights Regime for Bangladesh's Mangrove Forest     

Anjan Kumer Dev Roy  Khorshed Alam  Jeff Gow 《Geographical review》2013,103(3):372-389

This study examines the challenges of achieving sustainable management of the world's largest mangrove forest, the Sundarbans, in Bangladesh. The Sundarbans is currently managed by the Bangladesh Department of Forest, under a state property‐rights regime, while our study explores an alternative property‐rights regime. We employed a mixed‐method approach to examine the prospects of alternative management and livelihood strategies to achieve sustainability. Both focus groups and household surveying were used to assess the opportunities for, and barriers to, achieving sustainability. It was found that two conflicting groups—forest‐dependent communities and foresters—are responsible for policy failures due to the absence of power‐sharing arrangements, nor is it likely a common property‐rights regime will be enough to cap degradation and achieve sustainability, while supply‐and‐demand policy interventions may well could help achieve sustainable management of the Sundarbans.  相似文献   

Hydrochemical investigation and quality assessment of ground water in rural areas of Delhi,India   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Masood Alam  Sumbul Rais  Mohd Aslam 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2012,66(1):97-110

The suitability of groundwater quality for drinking and agricultural purposes was assessed in the rural areas of Delhi based on the various water quality parameters. A total of 50 ground water samples were collected randomly from different sources viz. hand pump, tube well, boring and analyzed for major ion chemistry to understand the operating mechanism of geochemical processes for ground water quality. The quality analysis is performed through the estimation of pH, EC, TDS, total hardness, total alkalinity, Na, K, Cl, NO₃, SO₄, DO, BOD, Cu, Cr, Cd, Ni, Zn and Pb. Hydrochemical facies were identified using Piper, Durov and Chadha diagram. Chemical data were also used for mathematical calculations (SAR, %Na, RSC, PI, KI, and chloroalkaline indices) for better understanding the suitability of ground water for irrigation purposes. The results of saturation index shows that all the water samples were supersaturated to undersaturated with respect to carbonate minerals and undersaturated with respect to sulphate and chloride minerals. According to USSL diagram, most of the samples fall in the field of C₃S₁, indicating medium salinity and low sodium water which can be used for almost all types of soil with little danger of exchangeable sodium. Assessment of water samples from various methods indicated that majority of the ground water in the study area is chemically suitable for drinking and agricultural uses.  相似文献